Forecasting the Trend of Typhoid Fever in Selected Teaching Hospital in Awka, Anambra State
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This study looked at how to predict or forecast typhoid disease trends in selected teaching hospital in Awka, Anambra State. On Typhoid fever cases in Awka, Anambra State, four distinct trend models of time series were fitted: linear, quadratic, exponential, and s-curve trend models. For this study, secondary statistical data was taken from survey information on typhoid fever cases conducted selected teaching hospital in Awka, Anambra state, from the records department of monthly typhoid fever recorded cases covering a period of twelve years (2000-2021). Model accuracy measures of MAPE, MAD, and MSD were used to find the best fitted trend model. The results demonstrated that the quadratic and s-curve trend models compete favourably in all the three model accuracy approaches assessed. The quadratic trend model, on the other hand, exhibited the best fit to the data and had the lowest MAD and MSD. For a period of 12 months, the quadratic trend model was employed to forecast typhoid fever in Awka. Between January 2022 and December 2022, the number of typhoid fever cases in Awka, Anambra state, is expected to grow. Clean water, toilet facilities, sanitation infrastructure, good hygiene practices, health education, and illness awareness initiatives were all recommended.
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